The Occurrence and Spacing of Second Births: Country Differences and the Relationship with Institutional Factor
Cukrowska-Torzewska, E., Matysiak, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; A. & Lovász, A., University of Washington Tacoma, Eur J Population (2026)
This study examines the relationship between institutional contexts and the transition to a second child in 11 European countries and the US between the 1990s and mid-2000s. Using harmonized longitudinal microdata and mixture cure models, we distinguish between the probability of having a second child (quantum) and the timing of its conception (tempo). We examine both between-country differences and within-country variation over time in labour market conditions and work-and-family reconciliation policies. The results reveal that women in Northern and Anglo-Saxon Europe experienced higher probabilities of second births and shorter birth intervals, while those in Central and Eastern and Southern Europe faced lower probabilities and longer birth intervals. Between-country estimates indicate that these cross-national differences are strongly associated with variation in reconciliation policies and labour market conditions, suggesting that institutional contexts help explain why fertility patterns differ across countries. Within-country estimates, which assess whether changes in institutional conditions are accompanied by changes in fertility behaviour over time reveal weaker and less consistent associations. This contrast suggests that institutional differences between countries do not necessarily translate into equivalent fertility responses to institutional change within countries, which may be more gradual and context dependent. One notable exception is parental leave: more generous parental-leave schemes of moderate length are associated with both higher second-birth probabilities and shorter intervals to conception.